Web

Thu Nov 5 08:22:49 PST 1998

To Become a Mass Medium, Web Must Be Freed From PC

Walter S. Mossberg
Wall Street Journal 11/5/98

When you turn on television these days, the airwaves are so full of
Web page addresses and breathless technology hype that it's easy to
believe the Internet is as much of a mass consumer medium as TV
itself. But that conclusion would be way off base.

Nearly every U.S. home, in every economic class and neighborhood,
has at least one TV set, and often several. The same goes for the
other great consumer technology: the telephone. TV sets are common
even in small villages in small countries. But only about 27% of
American homes boast an online connection, and the figure is far
lower in most other countries. The Internet simply is not yet a mass
medium.

Sure, lots of people use the Web from work, but that isn't likely to
spawn vast consumer-oriented online businesses, because savvy
companies increasingly limit the time and scope of employee Web
browsing, for security and productivity reasons. So the big dividends
will come in the home, and that 27% figure is just too low to support
the grandiose connected world that Internet zealots predict will be
upon us in just a few years. The spread of the Web looks spectacular,
when measured against a low base, but it's less impressive than it
seems.

We know what a mass medium looks like. Even in an era of declining
network-television viewing, shows like "Seinfeld" can draw 25 million
or 30 million households -- more than the total of Internet-connected
homes -- simultaneously for a solid half-hour. But the biggest
consumer gateway to the Internet, America Online, can only
accommodate about 800,000 of its 13 million members at any one time.
That's more people than typically watch CNN during daytime hours, but
far fewer than watch even some obscure network and cable series.
What's more, those AOL members are dispersed throughout the Web at
thousands of sites.

The web, of course, isn't a mass broadcast medium, but a medium
which can "narrowcast," sending smaller but more dedicated audiences
to content and services tailored to their interests. But it will
still need to attract millions of additional regular users before it
can challenge established content and services in the physical
world.

So what will it take for the Internet to become a mass medium? The
typical answer is more bandwidth to the home, providing faster,
bigger connections. That's true. But I think there are four other
things that need to change one of them crucial. Home connections
must be not only speedier but cheaper and automatic -- always open.
Compelling content also must be developed. The Web needs its own
Milton Berle, the performer whose popular show in the 1950s got
people to buy TV sets. In fact, it needs many Milton Berles. And the
Web needs much better business models, so companies there can earn
profits, not just publicity.

But by far the most important thing needed for the Web to become
ubiquitous is a replacement for the personal computer as the main
device people must use to get there. The Web is imprisoned in the
PC. Its growth is limited by the adoption rate of this clumsy,
complex, unstable device which even at $800 is too expensive. After
two decades as a mass consumer product, the PC has entered just 45%
of American homes. Two full years of dramatic price cuts have failed
to push PC penetration over 50%, and those price cuts are showing
signs of leveling off.

Even if PC penetration creeps over 50% next year, it will need to
nearly double again to match the TV, which was a common presence in
homes just 20 years after it became a mass-market item in the late
1940s.

One of the Internet's most optimistic gurus, Nicholas Negroponte of
the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, has acknowledged the PC
problem. Last summer, writing in Wired Magazine -- the bible of
Internet utopians -- he described his shock at having to shop for a
PC himself, after years of depending on others to do so.

"Suddenly I realize that even with so much of MIT's computing talent
at my disposal and no care whatsoever for what things cost, I am no
better off than peasants in Pakistan confronted with their very first
computer," wrote the technically savvy Mr. Negroponte. "Today's
machines are just too complex to be accessible."

The best hope for Internet ubiquity is the rapid development and
marketing of simpler, cheaper devices, which I've been calling
information appliances in this space for years. These machines, like
Microsoft's WebTV set-top box or the new Jupiter-class mini-laptops,
are designed either just to access the Web and e-mail, or to do that
plus a few other, limited tasks, such as word processing or keeping a
calendar.

They aren't designed to run thousands of software packages, or to be
all things to all people. But they turn on instantly, connect to the
Web simply, crash rarely and spare users from having to master
complex, general-purpose operating systems like Windows or the MacOS.

Those who want universal Internet use need to drop their techie
sensibilities and look at the world beyond the PC. They need to cheer
heartily for the info appliance projects now being undertaken at
companies inside and outside the industry. Unless we get a truly
simple box with which to access the Internet, something as easy and
reliable as a TV or phone, the Web will remain a partial success, a
diversion for techies and the privileged.

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