SCN: What America can expect in a war against terrorists.

[TuanMD]

Dr. Tony Kern, a former USAF Lieutenant Colonel, authored the
following letter about what America can expect in a war
against terrorists.


Recently, I was asked to look at the recent events through
the lens of military history. I have joined the cast of
thousands who have written an "open letter to Americans."

14 September, 2001

Dear friends and fellow Americans

Like everyone else in this great country, I am reeling from
last week's attack on our sovereignty. But unlike some, I am
not reeling from surprise. As a career soldier and a student
and teacher of military history, I have a different
perspective and I think you should hear it.

This war will be won or lost by the American citizens, not
diplomats, politicians or soldiers. Let me briefly explain.
In spite of what the media, and even our own government is
telling us, this act was not committed by a group of mentally
deranged fanatics. To dismiss them as such would be among the
gravest of mistakes. This attack was committed by a
ferocious, intelligent and dedicated adversary. Don't take
this the wrong way. I don't admire these men and I deplore
their tactics, but I respect their capabilities. The many
parallels that have been made with the Japanese attack on
Pearl Harbor are apropos. Not only because it was a brilliant
sneak attack against a complacent America, but also because
we may well be pulling our new adversaries out of caves 30
years after we think this war is over, just like my father's
generation had to do with the formidable Japanese in the
years following WW II.

These men hate the United States with all of their being, and
we must not underestimate the power of their moral
commitment. Napoleon, perhaps the world's greatest
combination of soldier and statesman, stated the moral is to
the physical as three is to one. Patton thought the Frenchman
underestimated its importance and said moral conviction was
five times more important in battle than physical strength.
Our enemies are willing -- better said anxious -- to give
their lives for their cause. How committed are we America?
And for how long?

In addition to demonstrating great moral conviction, the
recent attack demonstrated a mastery of some of the basic
fundamentals of warfare taught to most military officers
worldwide, namely simplicity, security and surprise. When I
first heard rumors that some of these men may have been
trained at our own Air War College, it made perfect sense to
me. This was not a random act of violence, and we can expect
the same sort of military competence to be displayed in the
battle to come. This war will escalate, with a good portion
of it happening right here in the good ol' U.S. of A. These
men will not go easily into the night. They do not fear us.
We must not fear them.

In spite of our overwhelming conventional strength as the
world's only superpower (a truly silly term), we are the
underdog in this fight. As you listen to the carefully
scripted rhetoric designed to prepare us for the march for
war, please realize that America is not equipped or seriously
trained for the battle ahead. To be certain, our soldiers are
much better than the enemy, and we have some excellent
counter-terrorist organizations, but they are mostly trained
for hostage rescues, airfield seizures, or the occasional
body snatch, (which may come in handy). We will be fighting a
war of annihilation, because if their early efforts are any
indication, our enemy is ready and willing to die to the last
man. Eradicating the enemy will be costly and time consuming.
They have already deployed their forces in as many as 20
countries, and are likely living the lives of everyday
citizens.

Simply put, our soldiers will be tasked with a search and
destroy mission on multiple foreign landscapes, and the
public must be patient and supportive until the strategy and
tactics can be worked out. For the most part, our military is
still in the process of redefining itself and is presided
over by men and women who grew up with - and were promoted
because they excelled in - Cold War doctrine, strategy and
tactics. This will not be linear warfare, there will be no
clear centers of gravity to strike with high technology
weapons. Our vast technological edge will certainly be
helpful, but it will not be decisive. Perhaps the perfect
metaphor for the coming battle was introduced by the
terrorists themselves aboard the hijacked aircraft -- this
will be a knife fight, and it will be won or lost by the
ingenuity and will of citizens and soldiers, not by software
or smart bombs. We must also be patient with our military
leaders.

Unlike Americans who are eager to put this messy time behind
us, our adversaries have time on their side, and they will
use it. They plan to fight a battle of attrition, hoping to
drag the battle out until the American public loses its will
to fight. This might be difficult to believe in this euphoric
time of flag waving and patriotism, but it is generally
acknowledged that America lacks the stomach for a long fight.
We need only look as far back as Vietnam, when North
Vietnamese General Vo Nguyen Giap (also a military history
teacher) defeated the United States of America without ever
winning a major tactical battle. American soldiers who
marched to war cheered on by flag waving Americans in 1965
were reviled and spat upon less than three years later when
they returned.

Although we hope that Osama Bin Laden is no Giap, he is
certain to understand and employ the concept. We can expect
not only large doses of pain like the recent attacks, but
also less audacious sand in the gears tactics, ranging from
livestock infestations to attacks at water supplies and power
distribution facilities. These attacks are designed to hit us
in our comfort zone forcing the average American to pay more
and play less and eventually eroding our resolve. But it can
only work if we let it. It is clear to me that the will of
the American citizenry - you and I - is the center of gravity
the enemy has targeted. It will be the fulcrum upon which
victory or defeat will turn. He believes us to be soft,
impatient, and self-centered. He may be right, but if so, we
must change. The Prussian general Carl von Clausewitz, (the
most often quoted and least read military theorist in
history), says that there is a remarkable trinity of war that
is composed of the (1) will of the people, (2) the political
leadership of the government, and (3) the chance and
probability that plays out on the field of battle, in that
order.

Every American citizen was in the crosshairs of last
Tuesday's attack, not just those that were unfortunate enough
to be in the World Trade Center or Pentagon. The will of the
American people will decide this war. If we are to win, it
will be because we have what it takes to persevere through a
few more hits, learn from our mistakes, improvise, and adapt.
If we can do that, we will eventually prevail.

Everyone I've talked to in the past few days has shared a
common frustration, saying in one form or another, "I just
wish I could do something!" You are already doing it. Just
keep faith in America, and continue to support your President
and military, and the outcome is certain. If we fail to do
so, the outcome is equally certain. God Bless America

Dr. Tony Kern, Lt Col, USAF (Ret)
Former Director of Military History, USAF Academy

http://www.snopes.com/rumors/tonykern.htm
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