SCN: Sophisticated? Did it really need a nation behind it?

[Scot Harkins on scn.org]

Something has bugged me since the talking heads have suggested the idea that
this attack was a highly sophisticated plan that MUST have involved more
than just bin Laden.  Indeed, it MUST have involved some state, perhaps
Iraq.

While I don't doubt that it is possible that Iraq is involved, I believe
this plan could have been carried out solely by bin Laden's group.  There
are only a few factors behind the plan, and bin Laden has the means to
accomplish them all.

First is planning and organization.  This is the ability to plan an
effective attack scenario, and then to organize and train the people who
will carry out the plan.  We're talking about four teams of a total of
eighteen people.  Those are confined, small, easily managed groups.  Bin
Laden has the training to organize such a crew, and the logistical support
people behind them.  The CIA trained him, and he organized some very
effective but simple campaigns against the Russians.  There could be as few
as one-hundred people involved, helping maintain the secrecy needed for such
a bold plan.

Second is money.  Pilot training is not cheap...for the average person.  Any
sufficiently dedicated person, however, with the right amount of money can
learn to fly commercial aircraft in a reasonably short period of time.  Bin
Laden supposedly has that kind of money.  Not millions of dollars, mind you.
Maybe a million.  Maybe two million.  That's not really that much money.

"Oh, come on, he took over FOUR planes at the same time!  How did he plan
that?"  Simple enough.  Travelocity.com and other websites, and even more
simply printed flight schedules, show flight times and even equipment.  It
doesn't take a lot to pin down four or more big jets running transcon
routes.

"Yeah, but how did they get on the airplanes?  They MUST have had passes on
the tarmac to get on board the plane."  Getting ON and airplane is really
very easy.  You buy a ticket.  Instant access to a flying bomb.
Furthermore, the flight attendants count heads before closing the doors.  Fo
ur or five extra people ought to give them pause.  That's the first sign of
stowaways or worse.  Being a ticketed passenger avoids that possible
problem.

"Well, sure buy a ticket, but you have to show ID in order to board.
They're probably in the US illegally, so how to they get the ID?"  Ask the
police how easy it is for identity thieves to create convincing false
identities, right down to state-created drivers licenses.  They probably
carried convincing and even legal (not forged) ID's under false names.
Maybe they didn't care and traveled under their real names, but that's too
risky for other reasons.  It doesn't really take a lot to get a complete
identity in our country.  It's illegal, but it's not hard.

"How did they get into our country?  Surely there's a record somewhere for
the arrival of these people."  Maybe.  Maybe not.  They could have walked
into our country, either across a border (and not at a crossing) or from a
boat dropped from a ship off one of the coasts.  It's really very easy to
enter our country without passing a legal port of entry.  In fact, right
here in Washington, you can walk across from Canada through hiking in the
forests or by stepping across on a quiet night at one of the communities
that straddle the border.  These are places where you literally step across
the border as easily as walking over a ditch.  Step, you're in the US.
Step, you're back in Canada.  Step, you're back in the US, and there isn't a
Customs agent in sight.

"How did they get the weapons on board the airplanes?"  I've flown with my
Super Leatherman many times, right on my belt.  I could kill someone with it
quite easily (logistically at least, though I have a hard time even punching
someone).  Not by stabbing, but by cutting the right spot.

Hijacking has traditionally followed a simple pattern.  The hijacker(s) take
over the plane, make demands, maybe land, maybe negotiate, maybe not.  The
landing almost always happens, so flight crews were taught to focus on
keeping the situation calm, counting on eventual negotiations, but preparing
for some level of danger.  Using the airplane as a bomb probably didn't even
occur to them until the last moment, save perhaps for the one plane that did
not make it's target.

I imagine the hijackers lied about their intent as well to keep the flight
crews at ease.  I wouldn't be surprised if they had the pilots set the new
course ("So we're going to land in NY/DC?") and set the autopilot.  Then,
closer to the target the sufficiently trained hijacker turned off the
autopilot and took the controls, at which point the pilots probably realized
(to late) that someone was actually at the controls and it wasn't them.

Using planes as bombs isn't a new idea, either.  Study up on the Pacific
theater of World War II.  Hijackers crashing planes isn't new, either.  What
was new and bold was stealing not one but several planes at the same time
and flying them into much larger targets.  Even accidents provide the idea,
such as the DC-3 (or some such airplane) that hit the Empire State Building
long ago, or a couple of recent military crashes near airfields.  Put a big
jet with lots of fuel into even a large building and you'll at least kill a
bunch of people and possibly get the building condemned.  I'll bet the
masters behind the attack got more than they could possibly have hoped for
in the original plan.

To be sure, this was an inventive, well planned, well executed attack, but I
don't think it's as complex a project as many seem to think.  I think a well
organized but small group with good resources could pull it off.


Scot

--
Scot Harkins (KA5KDU)
Greenbank, WA         | Native Texan firmly planted in Western Washington
scoth at bigfoot.com     | SCA: Ld. Scot MacFin, Barony of Madrone, An Tir
scoth at scn.org/msn.com | URL <http://www.bigfoot.com/~scoth>


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